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Petrol Or Not Petrol

After the Strategy for Belgium in a globalizing economy debate, I wanted to ask the following question to Mr Dirk Beeuwsaert :

JFDeclercq - "If, within 25 years, Petrol reserves are empty, what could be the impact on globalization?"

My logic is that if transport becomes too expensive: if planes can't fly with something else than kerozen, if boats can't navigate without Petrol, if trucks can't go through Europe... Won't the production facilities revert to local ? Will we still have Ananas and Kiwis at Carrefour ?

But I had no time to explain. I had my answer :

Dirk Beeuwsaert : "It's not true" (Oil reserves are not finished within 25 years).

I was first surprised by a quiet aggresive answer. Maybe this question always keeps coming back and it's getting on his nerves or maybe it's in its nature, or this question is indeed very touchy for SUEZ. Anyway, I have learned in my negociation course at Vlerick that "You should always be nice". A principle that is not always known... Probably, as Mr Beeusaert is a VP, he needs to show his dominance. Leaders and ego...

Nevertheless, I continued :

jfdeclercq : "Why do I hear on the radio that oil reserves are going down and Petrol would be too expensive 25 years from now ?"

I should have added : and also Why did Bush say that USA needs to reduce its oil addiction ? (See "Bush has plan to end oil 'addiction'" - http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/01/31/bush.sotu/

Dirk Beeuwsaert : "The radio is not informing you well : they don't know what they are talking about."

According to Mr Beeuwsaert, new technologies will be there to allow to produce oil for many more years (I don't remember the number).

It's true that I also heard on the radio that some people expect the barrel price to go down.With the current oil price, oil companies have more money to innovate and find petrol sources that were unavailable some years ago. Because of that, the price would go down from $75 (today) to to $40/barrel. (See "BP boss says oil prices will fall" - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5069294.stm)



I find other information on the web around the petrol reserves:

"What they don't want you to know about the coming oil crisis"

"Soaring fuel prices, rumours of winter power cuts, panic over the gas supply from Russia, abrupt changes to forecasts of crude output... Is something sinister going on? Yes, says former oil man Jeremy Leggett, and it's time to face the fact that the supplies we so depend on are going to run out"

By Jeremy Leggett - Published: 20 January 2006 - See WORLD'S OIL WILL RUN OUT IN TEN YEARS

What should I think now ? We will see. I wrote this article so I can check within 25 years...

My feeling is that there are BIG CHANGES TO COME in the energy sector but some prefer we'd better not think about it. Others think about it for us, we should not worry...


Last edited on Wednesday, January 10, 2007 at 10:05:10 am.